Data Analysis: Which Defender Should Spurs Sign?

“People have been telling me my whole career I've only got a Plan A – and they are right!"

Spurs’ rebuild is in full swing, with the ever-boisterous and never-compromising Ange Postecoglou at the helm. After signing attacking midfielder James Maddison and goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario, it’s no secret Spurs are in the market for a central defender.

The current crop of Spurs defenders is below standard. Even though he still makes appearances for England, Eric Dier has underperformed for at least two seasons. Davinson Sanchez’s confidence was destroyed by merciless boos from supporters. Japhet Tanganga struggled for game time last season under all three of Spurs’ managers. If Tottenham are to achieve a top-4 finish next season, there is no room for dead weight. Defender upgrades are required.

Throughout June, two names emerged at the top of Spurs’ transfer list: Wolfsburg’s Micky van de Ven and Bayer Leverkusen’s Edmond Tapsoba. The two central defenders are considered some of the brightest prospects in European football and are available for roughly €40 million each.

Many Spurs fans advocate signing both van de Ven and Tapsoba, but recent reports suggest the club will only bring in one. So which defender should Spurs sign? Statistics show one player is clearly better than the other.

A note about statistics in this article:

Statistics are presented as per-90’ percentiles as compared to other centerbacks in a player’s domestic league, the Champions League, and the Europa League. For example, a player may be in the 70th percentile for progressive passes per 90’, meaning they average more progressive passes over a 90-minute period than 70% of centerbacks they play against.

In all cases, the higher the percentile number, the better.

Statistics source: fbref.com. All statistics are from the last 365 days. The full spreadsheet is available here.

Physicals

Van de Ven is the more imposing figure. The Dutchman is 3cm taller and 2kg heavier than Tapsoba. Van de Ven is also much faster, registering a top sprint speed of 35.97km/h in the ‘22/23 Bundesliga season (9th best among all players). Tapsoba reached 33.68 km/h, good for only 152nd. Finally, van de Ven is left-footed, perhaps making him a better tactical fit next to Cristian Romero in a back four.

Winner: van de Ven

Defending

Calling this one is easy — Tapsoba’s numbers are better than van de Ven’s in every category. Tapsoba tackles more often, wins more tackles, and makes more interceptions. And, despite being shorter than van de Ven, Tapsoba wins more aerials.

Winner: Tapsoba

Passing

Ange Postecoglou prefers to play out from the back, so Spurs need central defenders who can pass at a high level. The numbers show Tapsoba’s passing ability is exceptional, while van de Ven falls in the middle of the pack. Progressive passes per-90’ are the obvious separator: Tapsoba is 39 percentile points better than van de Ven. Van de Ven’s passing completion rate is higher than Tapsoba’s, but that’s because Tapsoba is attempting riskier (and often more rewarding) passes at a much higher volume.

Winner: Tapsoba

Ball Carrying and Dribbling

Building from the back also requires defenders who are skilled with the ball at their feet. Tapsoba and Van de Ven are both elite ball carriers. They rank in the 90th percentile or above in progressive carries, meaning they’re more than comfortable dribbling the ball forward. Tapsoba and van de Ven’s miscontrols numbers are about the same. Neither one can be considered mistake-prone, but they do make the occasional dribbling error.

The separation comes in the successful take-on % category, where Tapsoba is 23 percentile points better than van de Ven. Tapsoba offers the ability to repeatedly dribble out of trouble and past an opponent’s first line of pressure, something van de Ven cannot do consistently.

Winner: Tapsoba

Other Options

Spurs are linked with many other names, including Gleison Bremer (Juventus), Harry Maguire (Manchester United), Marc Guéhi (Crystal Palace), Clement Lenglet (Barcelona), Piero Hincapié (Leverkusen), and Pierre Kalulu (AC Milan).

If Spurs want a ball-playing central defender, they should avoid signing Gleison Bremer. He’s a good defender, but his progressive passes (5th percentile), progressive carries (16th percentile), and miscontrols (19th percentile) numbers are abysmal. Spurs should also avoid Marc Guéhi, whose progressive passes (39th percentile), progressive carries (42nd percentile), and miscontrols (42nd percentile) numbers aren’t much better.

Spurs can eliminate Harry Maguire too, whose tackling (28th percentile for tackles won), aerial (19th percentile for % of aerials won), and progressive passing (47th percentile) numbers are poor.

Clement Lenglet’s statistics are solid across the board, but he isn’t elite in any one category. The Barcelona man could be a good value pickup at €12.5 million, but he will not raise Spurs’ level. Pierre Kalulu’s numbers are only slightly better than Lenglet’s, but he’ll come at a price of around €45 million. Value-wise, Lenglet is the better buy.

Finally, Hincapié’s tackles won (94th percentile) and progressive carries (97th percentile) numbers are phenomenal, but at 64kg/141lbs on a 182cm/5’11” frame, there are real concerns over his size, strength, and aerial ability (13th percentile for % of aerials won).

Winner: Edmond Tapsoba

In a head-to-head comparison with Micky van de Ven, Edmond Tapsoba is the clear winner. Across the board, Tapsoba’s numbers are consistently better than van de Ven's. In particular, Tapsoba wins more aerials, wins more tackles, and makes more progressive passes. Although van de Ven is taller, quicker, and left-footed, Tapsoba checks all the boxes as a top-level ball carrier, exceptional passer, and quality defender. If Spurs only sign one defender, Leverkusen’s Edmond Tapsoba should be their man.